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Title: | Anàlisi del Patró de creixement de les Comunitats Autònomes Espanyoles des de 1980: una ampliació del model de Solow-Swan |
Author: | Vila Gisbert, Ricardo |
Abstract: | This paper determines whether the current crisis of the Spanish regions (Autonomous Communities o AC) is cyclical or structural. In the first case, AC would be able to overcome the crisis and grow again with the next change in the economic cycle however, in the latter, deep economic changes would be required previous to overcome the crisis.This question is quite relevant in the current economical environment when Spanish AC have been suffering a deep economic crisis since 2007. This crisis has reduced the per capita income of their citizens in a 17%, has increased the unemployment rate until a 27% and has had other critical impacts, such as the loss of social cohesion, with the virtual disappearance of the middle class. In this environment, the overcoming of the crisis and the return to a growth path leading to a higher steady state become critical priorities for the AC. This paper shows that Spanish AC have suffered an actual structural crisis and then structural changes are required to overcome it. To achieve this result, the paper extends the Solow-Swan model to decreasing periods and develops a new method to estimate macroeconomic parameters by adjusting a logistic function. The paper also shows that Spanish AC had converged in the growth period 1973-2007 and had diverged in the decreasing period 2007-2013. But in the first years of each period their evolution has been the opposite: they had diverged in 1973-2002 and had converged in 2007-2010. This result allows us to make a sketch of a new model of economic impulse transmission between the AC. |
Keywords: | growth Solow-Swan mode structural change conditional convergence spanish regions social cohesion logistic curves economic analysis |
Document type: | info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis |
Issue Date: | 27-Jan-2015 |
Publication license: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
Appears in Collections: | Trabajos finales de carrera, trabajos de investigación, etc. |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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01570_MF_Ricardo_Vila_20141.pdf | Treball Final de Grau | 1,55 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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