The Role of geopolitical risk in conflict analysis: Critical insights

Abstract

Conflict analysis is a key step to be considered by conflict and peace academics, practitioners and policymakers willing to assess the complexities associated with conflict scenarios. With this aim, this essay explores how Geopolitical Risk, particularly the Geopolitical Risk Index, could be used as a supportive tool for multidisciplinary studies in geoeconomics and geopolitics. The case of the war in Ukraine was taken as an example that guided the research framework. The core research findings show that conflict studies could accommodate geopolitical risk as a conflict analysis tool. However, caution is needed regarding the limitations and complexities associated with econometric modeling and how it can be used to integrate behavioral sciences, which are critical aspects of understanding the human dimension attached to decision-making processes, and that emerge as a significant limitation.