The grape phylloxera plague as a natural experiment: the upkeep of vineyards in Catalonia (Spain), 1858-1935

Abstract

We present a comparative analysis of the impact and outcome in Catalonia of the wine rush and crash unleashed by the spread of the Grape Phylloxera plague in Europe (1865-1890). In order to explain why many rural districts in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona were able to resume winegrowing after the plague, while most in the provinces of Girona and Lleida were not, a statistical model is used to check the economic resilience of the Catalan districts to the external ecological and economic shock. The model combines the population densities as a proxy of the opportunity cost in labour allocation, the demand pull of commercial growth measured by the time-distances to the city of Barcelona, and the agroclimatic land's suitability for growing vines, as measured by the Hugling and Winkler indices or the mean slopes of land. After comparing the vineyard allocation in every district in 1860, 1889 and 1920, these variables are used to explain the differing capacities to endure the Phylloxera plague in Catalonia.