Policy sequencing for early-stage transition dynamics - A process model and comparative case study in the water sector

Abstract

Sustainability scholars increasingly recognize that policy mixes can positively impact socio- technical transitions. However, the temporal dimension of policy interventions remains under- researched, especially in the context of early transition dynamics that typically emerge in niche contexts. In this article, we explore how policy sequencing can play a key role in supporting the scaling-up of early-stage transition dynamics to drive wider system change. We contribute to transition research by proposing a process model for analyzing policy sequences by focusing on the interplay between policy instruments and institutional barriers. We conceptualize two ideal- type policy sequencing patterns - strategic and reactive - which we illustrate with empirical ex- amples from early transition dynamics in the urban water sector of San Francisco (United States) and Sant Cugat del Vall`es (Spain). Applying the process model to these case studies reveals how different sequences of policy (instrument) mixes can assist in overcoming institutional barriers, thus supporting transition trajectories.