Navigating the Ukraine War: Unraveling the Interplay of Geoeconomics, Geopolitics and Deterrence

Abstract

The Russian war in Ukraine has brought the deterrence dilemma back to the international table. More than a year after the eruption of the war both parties’ deterrence and military strategies, in parallel with the international community’s failed diplomacy, have proved non-decisive in ending the conflict. On the other hand, the war seems to be expanding to a more complex scenario with profound political and economic consequences. Despite some initial optimistic policy analyses, the war will not be short-timed, and its long-lasting consequences will remain even if the hostilities and armed aggressions cease. Economic power and military strategies contribute to reshaping the world’s economic and political order due to their substantial impact on economic and energy assets. The interplay between political, military, economic effects, deterrence strategies and the security dilemma requires insights due to the renewed bargaining force in the global balance of power.