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Title: Impacto de la política monetaria no convencional sobre el ciclo económico
Author: Gurtner, Martin Alejandro  
Tutor: Aslanidis, Nektarios  
Abstract: This study aims to examine the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the economic cycle, exploring their connection with cycle phases and their correlation with key macroeconomic indicators. The paper contains various contrasting hypotheses, initially establishing a theoretical framework linking macroeconomic variables to different cycle phases. However, it considers the economic cycle not only in terms of short-term assessable periods but also as an aggregator of a long term cycle. Concerning the economic cycle and the global order, the United States emerges as the leading global power, aligning 8 economic and social indicators characteristic of an economized culture (education, technology, financial power, etc.) to ascend in what represents the initial phase of the cycle’s parabola. From this initial law, a second one can be derived, suggesting that the cycle phases depend on the saturation of the 8 metrics. Hence, it is crucial to analyze which influential variables predominantly drive these 8 indicators. As we know, any contemporary economy governs its well-being of economic, financial, and social well-being through GDP as a general indicator. Therefore, GDP should be considered the most effective variable in representing the 8 indicators of the economic cycle. If we aim to link GDP to possible measures that intervene throughout the period in which an economy moves along the cycle’s parabola, these measures or policies could be the tools used to modify other relevant economic and financial variables. In essence, if we can validate that monetary policy is a resource that affects the main macroeconomic variables influencing an economy’s GDP, then we have an approach indicating at which point of the cycle we are and, perhaps, to what extent they impact its evolution. The initial statistical analysis evaluates the relationship between economic recessions and an economy’s interest rate curve, thus relating GDP and monetary policy. While unproductive debt has not historically been a concern during the era of the American order until 2008, ¿What happens post 2008 when central banks start injecting debt, thus financing their expenses based on fiscal imbalances? ¿Is this an indicator of the cycle’s position? The predictive ability of a recession based on the interest rate curve suggests that central bank actions empower them to influence the short term cycle. However, the flip side is an increase in government debt balance, hence referencing bonds as an indicator of economic saturation. The second statistical analysis contrasts the relationship between the economy’s wear and tear in terms of GDP growth and the evolution of a government’s held assets. The unprecedented amount of debt issued by the American government serves as an indicator of a global order whose trend is reversing. Finally, the third and last but nos least important statistical analysis links the evolution of tradable assets to the repercussions of central bank executed policies. The reciprocal effect leaves an analysis window open for another possible study to evaluate if their measures are conducted by central banks reviewing market values to make their decisions. Hence, the question remains: Does this still constitute a free market?
Document type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis
Issue Date: 8-Jan-2024
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