Did COVID-19 really change our lifestyles? Evidence from transport energy consumption in Europe

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered substantial societal shifts and reductions in energy consumption, influenced both by the virus itself and the governmental policies implemented to curb its spread. With the end of the pandemic, it is crucial to assess whether enduring behavioural changes have occurred as they may play a vital role in achieving Paris Agreement targets. This paper examines energy consumption patterns in the European transport sector during and after the pandemic and evaluates the role of containment policies. Using quantile regression analysis, we quantify the effect of these policies on transport fuel consumption, with the Gradient Boosting Machines algorithm ranking their importance. Our results reveal significant reductions in motorised land transport and aviation use during the pandemic followed by distinct recovery patterns, with the former recovering faster than the latter. The COVID-19 policies that exerted the most influence on transport use were “school closures,” “cancelling of public events,” and “international travel controls.” Diverse recovery patterns were observed among countries. While many countries swiftly rebounded to normality, lasting behavioural changes were seen in Sweden, Czechia, and Denmark. These countries offer valuable policy lessons for transitioning to a sustainable transport sector.